Canadian Real Estate Market

Canadian Real Estate Market Overview (2025)

• The Canadian real estate sector is estimated to generate US$200–195 billion in total market revenue for 2024–2025.
• Forecasts expect the industry to grow to about US$260–265 billion by 2030, reflecting a healthy growth rate of around 5% annually.
• The residential component represents the bulk of activity, with a total market value projected around US$6.8 trillion in 2025 (largely based on estimated valuation across all properties).

Segmentation Breakdown Residential Market

• Estimated value in 2025: ~US$6.8 trillion
• Forecast CAGR: around 4–5% through 2029
• Residential units account for 60–70% of overall market activity, with condominiums and apartments growing fastest.

Commercial & Services

• Commercial real estate expected at approximately US$83 billion in 2025, with projected growth to over US$100 billion by 2030.
• Revenue from brokerage, property sales, and related services is forecast to be around US$31 billion in 2025, rising to nearly US$39–40 billion by 2030.

Key Trends & Drivers Population & Housing Demand

• Historical immigration-led population growth has driven strong housing demand across major urban centres.
• With government caps starting in early 2025, demand remains elevated but may moderate slightly going forward.

Supply Constraints & Construction

• Ongoing housing undersupply continues to fuel price appreciation—though a near-term glut from recently completed condos is easing pressure in some markets.
• Housing starts are expected to decline modestly in 2025, after surging in provinces like Alberta.

Pricing Trends

• National average home price expected to rise by around 4–5% in 2025, reaching approximately CAD 720,000 (approx. US$530–540K).
• In hot markets like Toronto, prices may climb up to 5% to around CAD 1,225,770, while condos in some regions may see flat or even decreasing values.

Policy & Supply Incentives

• Governments are encouraging housing development through zoning reforms, rental incentives, new tax breaks, and support for first-time buyers.
• A two-year ban on foreign buyers expired in 2025, but foreign ownership had already declined to around 1%, limiting its effect on prices.

2024–2025 Market Snapshot

• Home resales rebounded around 9% in 2024, with roughly 484,000 residential sales across the country. Projections indicate these could rise another 8.5% in 2025.
• Investment activity surged in late 2024, with quarterly transaction volumes rising over 60% year-on-year to reach record levels—especially in urban and resort regions.