Last week we reported on Redfin’s market slowdown report. What’s on everyone’s mind this week is how the surge in U.S. housing over the past two years has made a turnabout. Today, instead of bidding wars, agents are faced with uncertainty. Here’s a look at what this means for U.S. agents. 

The U.S. housing market, which took off during the pandemic, was boosted even more by record-low interest rates. Now, those rates are escalating as inflation grips the country. Add to this buyer uncertainty, and you have a recipe for tough times ahead for many agents and for sellers. This slowdown is a snowball shoved into motion by rising mortgage rates. Now, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is about 6%, as opposed to around 3% previously. What this means is a giant boost in monthly payments for the average homebuyer. 

Now we’re seeing two key indicators that tell us the coming months won’t be looking good. First, the supply of homes on the market is going up. Secondly, prices are falling accordingly. New listings are also down, meaning the overall uncertainty seems to permeate the market. With inventories still down compared to 2019, most sellers can expect their homes to stay on the market a lot longer. There are simply too few potential buyers out there now. And new home construction is way down. We seem to be in a housing recession already. 

At the end of the day, it all boils down to affordability. Even though prices are falling, these fiscal policies are tacking on hundreds of extra dollars in mortgage payments. And this is happening at a time when the job market and other economic factors are uncertain. In a recent statement by Andy Walden, VP of enterprise research and strategy for Black Knight, it currently takes 35.1% of median income to pay monthly principal and interest. Walden went on to say the affordability aspect spells a continued downward price spiral. 

What this all means for American real estate pros is pointedly obvious. The competition to list for sellers and the need for marketing and sales prowess to convert buyers will separate the wheat from the chaff in the coming months. Bottom line, agents and agencies without the network, reputations, tools, and strategies are going to suffer – hard. 

Ask Brian is a weekly column by Real Estate Expert Brian Kline. If you have questions on real estate investing, DIY, home buying/selling, or other housing inquiries please email your questions to askbrian@realtybiznews.com.

Question from Hannah in AR: Hi Brian, Two months ago I inherited three rental houses from my brother’s estate. He was a landlord for almost 30 years, but I have no experience with it. The houses are in two small towns near each other but about 45 miles from where I live. The houses are between 25 and 40 years old. Although they are a little old, my brother kept them in good repair and was picky about having tenants that took care of them. Two of them are two-bedroom houses and the other has three bedrooms.

My husband and I have been racking our brains about what to do with these houses. One is currently vacant and the other two have tenants with leases that expire over the next several months. After lots of discussion about selling them, we have finally decided to keep all three as rentals. However, because one has been vacant for several months, we are concerned if we can keep them rented out full time. My husband’s sister suggested that we look into the Section 8 program because there is always a waiting list of approved tenants. Do you think this is a good idea and where do we start? 

Answer: Hello Hannah. Most Landlords either love or hate the Section 8 program. They love it because they don’t have to worry about receiving most of their rent on time, every single month. They don’t need to worry about checks being “lost in the mail” and a million other excuses tenants use to not pay their rent on time. And they love it because they can charge a lot for their rent.

On the other hand, one of the reasons that some landlords don’t like Section 8 is the government regulations involved. They don’t want the government involved with their rental properties. The regulation includes a safety inspection when the tenant moves in and ongoing inspections once a year or every other year. After the inspection process, you’ll need to fix every item on their list before the tenant is approved for move-in. The inspection criteria are more stringent than most landlords expect, so the expense can be costly. Because Section 8 is a government housing program, you can expect the process to move slowly. 

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